Key Points
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Climate change weakens farming and herding, raising local conflict risks.
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Competition for land and water can fuel violence in fragile regions.
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Extremist groups exploit these tensions to gain support and spread.
In the Sahel region, farmers and herders are facing growing challenges due to changing weather patterns. Rain now comes late and ends early, leaving crops dry and pastures scarce.
People living in Niger’s Tillabéri and Burkina Faso’s Fada N’Gourma say they notice the changes, even if they don’t use the term “climate change.” They speak of more heat, dry spells, and floods that ruin land.
This disruption in agriculture and livestock systems pushes communities into competition. Farmers clear more land for crops, while herders search farther for pasture.
Water points become contested, and grazing paths disappear. With these shared resources under pressure, tensions rise between groups—especially when land ownership and access overlap with ethnic identities.
Local conflicts open the door to extremist groups
The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) found that while climate change doesn’t directly cause terrorism, it creates the perfect storm for violence.
In regions where the state is weak and traditional conflict resolution methods are strained, disputes over land and water can turn deadly. People affected by the insecurity often form self-defense groups. When these groups arm themselves, violence spreads.
In such vulnerable areas, extremist groups like Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin and Islamic State in the Sahel step in. They offer protection or side with one group in the conflict, gaining support and power.
ISS studies from as early as 2016 show that many people joined these groups to protect their families or livelihoods—not because of ideology, but out of fear.
Addressing the root problems to reduce insecurity
To reduce terrorism in the Sahel, experts say efforts should not focus solely on climate or security in isolation. Instead, both challenges must be addressed together.
Communities need better ways to manage land and settle disputes. Governments and local leaders must restore fair access to water, grazing land, and farming areas.
Public policies must support both farmers and herders. Agriculture has often been prioritized over pastoralism, causing imbalance and resentment.
Modern tools for farming and herding—like water harvesting, drought-resistant crops, and shared land use planning—could help reduce pressure and build resilience.
Ultimately, peace in the Sahel depends on helping communities adapt to climate change and manage conflict before extremist groups step in.
