KEY POINTS
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Petrol exports hit N371bn after Dangote refinery launch.
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Import dependence still dwarfs the export milestone.
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Analysts say higher refining output may strengthen Nigeria’s trade.
Nigeria shipped Premium Motor Spirit valued at N371.54 billion in the second quarter of 2025, marking its first recorded petrol exports since the Dangote Petroleum Refinery began operations. The development signals a structural change in the country’s trade flows after decades of import dependence due to idle state-owned refineries.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that petrol contributed 1.63 percent of Nigeria’s total exports in the quarter. No shipments were recorded in the previous quarter or during the same period in 2024.
Petrol exports reshape trade balance
Trade figures reveal that N85.83 billion worth of exports, about 23.1 percent of the total, went to African markets. All shipments were within West Africa, concentrated in the ECOWAS sub-region. The bulk, or 76.9 percent, went to destinations outside the continent, pointing to early demand from Asia and the Middle East.
In the regional breakdown, petrol made up 2.89 percent of exports to Africa, 4.36 percent to West Africa, and 4.45 percent to ECOWAS. Globally, petrol ranked as Nigeria’s ninth-largest export in Q2 2025. Within West Africa, it rose to fifth place, and fourth within ECOWAS.
Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, told an industry conference that the refinery exported about 1.35 billion litres of petrol between June and July, equivalent to one million tonnes. He said the refinery had also begun shipping aviation fuel to Europe and Saudi Arabia.
Import dependence still persists
Despite the exports, Nigeria remained a net importer. Petrol imports reached N2.38 trillion in Q2 2025, down 45.56 percent from N4.36 trillion in Q2 2024 but still nearly 6.4 times the export value. Compared to N1.76 trillion in Q1 2025, imports rose 34.89 percent quarter-on-quarter.
In total, N4.14 trillion worth of petrol was imported in the first half of 2025, a 49.41 percent decline from the same period in 2024. Analysts say higher output from Dangote’s refinery could reduce dependence on overseas suppliers, though regional demand remains high.
Industry sources told S&P Global that petrol exports from the refinery peaked at around 90,000 barrels per day in June, reaching as far as Oman, Singapore, and Malaysia. Maintenance and outages slowed volumes in the early phase.
Under a naira-for-crude agreement with the government, the refinery must supply fixed volumes to the domestic market. Officials say this is vital to protect local supply amid concerns about export priorities.
According to Punch, Dangote dismissed fears of a monopoly, arguing that the company’s investments aimed at building Nigeria’s energy independence. He criticized those who prefer investing abroad while neglecting domestic capacity.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority estimates that Nigeria and other West African countries still import about 69 percent of their petrol needs, averaging 2.05 million metric tonnes monthly.
Analysts say petrol exports mark a turning point. For decades, the product featured only in import bills. With Dangote refining and shipping globally, Nigeria has begun shifting into both a regional supplier and a participant in global refined products trade.
