KEY POINTS
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Electric vehicles could make up half of Nigeria’s vehicle fleet within 20 years, driven by falling costs and improved technology, according to Wale Tinubu.
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Power supply, infrastructure gaps, and high import costs remain major obstacles to widespread adoption of electric mobility.
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Policy reforms and commercial fleet adoption could accelerate Nigeria’s transition to electric vehicles if supported by reliable electricity and investment-friendly policies.
Wale Tinubu, Group Chief Executive of Oando, has predicted that electric vehicles (EVs) could account for as much as half of Nigeria’s vehicle fleet within the next two decades.
He made the projection during an interview on Arise News TV at the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, where global business leaders and policymakers discussed economic trends, energy security, climate goals, and investment opportunities.
According to Tinubu, the rapid decline in global EV production costs, combined with technological advances and expanding charging infrastructure, could accelerate the adoption of electric mobility in Nigeria faster than many expect.
Tinubu pointed to China as a clear example of how quickly automotive markets can shift once electric vehicles become affordable and accessible. He noted that a growing share of vehicles produced in China are already electric, demonstrating how improved manufacturing efficiency can narrow the cost gap between electric and traditional petrol or diesel cars.
He argued that similar dynamics could eventually play out in Nigeria if the economic and infrastructural conditions become favourable.
Power supply as the key driver
For Tinubu, Nigeria’s transition to electric mobility hinges largely on electricity. He said the country’s vast natural gas reserves could be leveraged to generate cheaper and more reliable power, making EV charging more practical and attractive than fuel-powered alternatives.
However, he acknowledged the reality on the ground. Nigeria’s electricity grid remains unreliable, forcing households and businesses to depend heavily on generators. This dependence raises costs and undermines confidence in technologies that require stable power supply, including electric vehicles.
Despite the optimism, Tinubu cautioned that the shift to electric vehicles will not be straightforward. Charging infrastructure across Nigeria is still limited, while the cost of importing EVs and batteries remains high for most consumers.
Other structural challenges also persist, including poor road conditions in many regions and the absence of robust maintenance networks for electric vehicles. These factors, he said, could slow adoption even if prices fall.
