KEY POINTS
- Energy economists are urging targeted cash transfers to protect poor Nigerians from rising fuel prices.
- Former NAEE president Adeola Adenikinju said Nigeria lacks a reliable database of vulnerable citizens to enable effective intervention.
- The 19th NAEE international conference holds in Lagos from April 26 to 29, 2026.
Adeola Adenikinju, a former president of the Nigerian Association for Energy Economics, has urged the federal government to start sending direct cash to poor Nigerians as US-Iran tensions push fuel prices higher. He said the country is staring at a “two-edged sword” that lifts oil revenue with one hand and crushes household budgets with the other.
Adenikinju made the call Sunday ahead of the 19th annual international conference of the association, which holds in Lagos from April 26 to 29, 2026. Stakeholders will spend four days dissecting how global energy shocks are reshaping African economies.
A two-edged sword which should lead cash transfersÂ
Specifically, Adenikinju said rising petrol costs have already triggered higher transportation fares and pushed inflation up. Low-income households, he warned, are absorbing the worst of the squeeze. “This is the time that Nigeria should say, ‘Look, we are sending some cash to those poor people who are vulnerable,'” he said.
However, the economist conceded that Nigeria still lacks a reliable database of its most vulnerable citizens. That gap has long stalled effective targeting of welfare interventions, even when funds are available. “If we have the data of all the poor people, this is the time that Nigeria should send some cash to those who are vulnerable, but we don’t have the data,” Adenikinju added.
Furthermore, Adenikinju acknowledged that recent moves to raise allowances for civil servants will offer limited relief. Specifically, the boost leaves out millions of Nigerians in the private and informal sectors.
He urged federal and state governments to collaborate on broader support mechanisms. Beyond immediate relief, he pressed for structural reforms that would harden the country’s social protection system against external shocks.
A bigger conference, a clearer agenda
Hassan Mahmud, the current president of the association, framed the conference as timely. He said Africa is wrestling with the trilemma of energy security, affordability and sustainability while a global transition to cleaner energy reshapes the rules.
Notably, Mahmud said Africa contributes less than 4 percent of global carbon emissions yet faces mounting pressure to decarbonize without adequate financing or technology. The conference, he said, will reposition the energy transition as an opportunity for growth, jobs and poverty reduction.
Tony Elumelu, the billionaire chairman of Heirs Energies, will attend, alongside David Bird, chief executive of the Dangote Group, and former power minister Barth Nnaji. Delegates will also tour Aliko Dangote’s 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery, the world’s largest single-train facility.
A push for the downstream
Meanwhile, Yinka Omorogbe, another former president of the association, called for a fundamental shift toward developing Nigeria’s downstream sector. She described the upstream as an enclave industry that creates few jobs.
“When you now open up the downstream and really make it functional and viable, you have industries throwing in hundreds of thousands of jobs into Nigeria,” Omorogbe said.
Omorogbe added that strengthening domestic refining is critical to economic stability. Without it, she warned, Nigerians will keep paying ever higher energy costs even as the country exports the crude that drives them. The conference will produce concrete policy recommendations for African governments grappling with the same questions.
